French Resignation to Losing AAA Shifts Focus to Size of Cut: Euro Credit

By Mark Deen - Jan 12, 2012 1:03 PM GMT+0100

After weeks of handwringing about a possible loss of France’s top credit rating, President Nicolas Sarkozy now gives a Gallic shrug.

Investors are interpreting the insouciance -- with Sarkozy saying that losing the AAA rating isn’t “insurmountable” -- to mean that France has accepted the inevitable. The question now is whether Standard & Poor’s will follow through with a threat of a two-level cut.

Sarkozy’s shift, intended to ready voters for the blow ahead of April’s presidential elections, contributed to the increase in the premium France pays over Germany to borrow for 10 years. Since Dec. 5, when S&P said that it may downgrade 15 euro nations amid a deepening regional debt crisis, the spread has widened by 32 percent to 122 basis points.

“They’re preparing the ground for something they see as inevitable,” said Nicola Marinelli, who manages $150 million at Glendevon King Asset Management in London. “The market is expecting France to be a strong AA; expecting it to be AA+. If any rating change goes lower than that the spread with Germany can widen further.”

France, Europe’s second-largest economy and the No. 2 backer of the region’s rescue fund after Germany, was singled out among the six euro-region holders of the top AAA rating by S&P as the one that risked a two-level lowering of its credit rating. The country’s downgrade would affect the rating of the European Financial Stability Fund, making the bailout of the region’s troubled economies more expensive.