Gold: Debt, Deficits, Doom, and Gloom

By: John Ing | Thu, Jan 26, 2012

Last month gold plunged more than $200 in less than a week and the dollar soared, trumping even gold. The move caused a catfight among letter writers with investors and central bankers questioning gold's safe haven status. By contrast, the US Treasury sold more debt despite growing concern about the US economy and politically dysfunctional Washington. In the seventies, gold corrected more than 50 percent, dropping $100 before heading higher. In the eighties, gold pulled back $100 after reaching $510 per ounce before reaching new highs. So, why the disconnect?
Start with cash strapped Europe where concerns about the euro crisis have sent investors into dollars instead of gold in a "dash for cash" because dollars provide liquidity at a time when liquidity is at a premium. Although the one month gold lease rate hit 0.2703 percent, European banks were "swapping" their gold in order to raise cash amidst a shortage of dollars, depressing gold prices. Investors seem to have confidence to hold dollar assets for maybe 30 seconds, 30 days but not 30 weeks.

Gold's Next Stop

However, gold has reversed course, resuming its uptrend on growing concerns over the lack of confidence in paper assets and the prospect of another round of quantitative easing. Central banks remain firmly on the path of printing money to pay off public debts and to keep their banking systems solvent. As bankers print ever more currency, they reduce the buying power of money in circulation. It is this dependency on the printing presses to liquefy the entire western banking system that has caused the central banks' balance sheets to be bloated with sovereign debts and the toxic paper of yesteryear. History shows that inflation always follows monetary expansion. Even with the correction, gold has done better than every other asset, including the dollar, up more than 10 percent last year making its eleventh consecutive annual gain. Having achieved ninety percent of our forecast of $2011 in 2011, we expect gold to reach $3,000 an ounce and end up for an even dozen years in 2012. There's just a lack of compelling investment alternatives.