20 December 2011

SilverDoctors: COMEX Silver Inventory Update 12/20/11

SilverDoctors: COMEX Silver Inventory Update 12/20/11: Frantic inventory volatility continued in COMEX silver warehouses Monday, with three large movements to report. While total COMEX (mainly ...

2011: The Last (Debt-Consumerist) Christmas in America By Charles Hugh Smith

December 20, 2011    


The end of debt-based affluence: welcome to The Last Christmas in America (TLCIA). Almost 35 years ago, as unemployment rose toward 10%, the January 1975 cover of Ramparts magazine blared: The End of Affluence: The Last Christmas in America. (TLCIA)
The article wasn't referring to the religious celebration; it was referring to the postwar concept of Christmas as the frenzied, exhausting year-end pinnacle of our one true secular faith, Consumption, a final orgy of buying and binging.
It is instructive to recall how the Federal government responded to unemployment, high inflation and rising budget deficits in the early 1970s: it began fudging numbers, manipulating data to mask the politically inconvenient realities of rising inflation, unemployment and deficits by playing switcheroo with Social Security Trust Funds, inflation data, etc.--games it continues to play in 2011 to cloak reality from the media-numbed public.
The market was not so easily fooled. The Bear market, reflecting the "real" recession, lasted 16 years, from 1967 to 1982. Now statistics are echoing that last great recession: rising prices for essentials, systemically high unemployment and stagnant wages while the corporate media and the organs of statistical manipulation (a.k.a. the sprawling, putrid public-private cesspool of the Ministry of Propaganda) trumpet "the return of growth" and skyrocketing corporate profits.
(Today's propaganda: housing starts blip up due to statistical noise, and though starts are less than half pre-recession levels, this is heralded as "evidence" that "strong growth is back.")
The difference between the postwar boom of 1946 and the boom that followed 1982 is the last boom was based on the explosive expansion of debt. People didn't save and invest in productive assets; they went into debt to consume more and to become a "bigger" persona via the miracle of credit.
I often use this chart to make this point: if credit had expanded along with GDP, then we'd be considerably less indebted. Instead, it required a vast expansion of debt--some $30 trillion more than the rise in GDP--to fuel the 1982-2000 boom.

Will the Europeans have to sell their gold? Commentary: Pressure on gold is bullish in the long term

By Brett Arends, MarketWatch
LONDON (MarketWatch) — If the Italians can’t persuade the bond markets to keep them in business, they have another card up their sleeve.
Few people realize it, but Italy holds the world’s fourth biggest stockpile of gold, at 2,452 tonnes. That’s even more than France, and more than twice as much as China.
Only the U.S., Germany and the International Monetary Fund hold more.
The question here is whether some of the troubled European countries — such as Italy and France — are going to have to start selling off the national gold pile to meet their bills.

Reuters
Gold bullion from the American Precious Metals Exchange
Some wonder if they already have.
Italy’s gold has a street value of about $123 billion — easily enough to cover this year’s $80 billion budget shortfall. Portugal’s $19 billion in bullion more than covers its $13 billion deficit. France has $122 billion worth of bullion, enough to make a massive dent in its $150 billion deficit.

More Deficits, More Debt

December 19, 2011 – In the first two months of the current fiscal year that began on October 1st, the US national debt has grown $320 billion.  That is $21 billion more than the same 2-month period last year, which illustrates that the growth of the national debt continues to accelerate. The reason of course is the federal government’s huge operating deficit, which is not getting any smaller.  This point is illustrated in the following chart.

Hyperinflation is always the outcome of unchecked government spending. The spending leads to ever greater deficits, which requires the government to borrow ever greater amounts of money. Eventually a point is reached when the government needs to borrow more money than lenders have the capacity – or willingness – to lend.  Thereafter the government can take either of two alternative paths.

SLV Short Position Update Theodore Butler | December 19, 2011 - 8:02am

The essence of my criticism of SLV shorting involves two things. An allegation of fraud and misrepresentation to SLV shareholders because metal can’t possibly back the shorted shares and that the short position is manipulative to the price of silver. That’s because the short sellers are shorting SLV shares because they won’t or can’t buy the physical silver as that would cause the price of silver to rise. Even though it was higher earlier in the year, the 25.2 million share short position in SLV is still outrageously excessive by any reasonable standard. I believe that BlackRock, the SLV sponsor, is negligent in not protecting the interests of shareholders and is violating its fiduciary responsibility for allowing such an excessive short position to exist. (Yes, I will be sending this to BlackRock’s chairman and president).

The issue of short selling in silver can be confusing, so let me try to make it clearer. In derivatives, like COMEX silver futures or options contracts, shorting is required. There must be a long and a short in order to create a contract. If there were no shorting, there would be no market; period. I’m not opposed to shorting in futures in general. My allegation of manipulation in COMEX silver revolves around the unusual concentration on the short side by a few commercial players, most notably JPMorgan. Concentration is the point in futures, not the act of shorting.

For U.S., European Economies - the $2 Trillion Solution

By Joseph Lazzaro:
December 20, 2011 3:19 PM ESTA Solution for Each Side of the Atlantic
In other words, we're looking at a "$2 trillion solution" -- $1 trillion on this side of the Atlantic, $1 trillion on the other side of the Atlantic, in Europe.
In Europe, Eurozone leaders have made progress addressing the large debt of its southern European countries, particularly Greece and Italy. They've increased the lending capacity of the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) to €440 billion or $575 billion, including allowing the facility to buy sovereign bonds on the primary or secondary markets.
However, even when combined with Italy's €30 billion or $39 billion in probable spending cuts and increased taxes, Italy may still end up using a considerable portion of the EFSF's resources.

Fed Loads Up Balance Sheets, Begins Europe Bailout On Same Week It Promises Not To: Data

By Eleazar David Meléndez: Subscribe to Eleazar's RSS feed
December 20, 2011 2:17 PM EST
In spite of spending most of the last week reassuring the public that it would not use its resources to bail out European banks and having decided against engaging on another round of balance sheet expansion, data shows the U.S. Federal Reserve engaged in precisely those two actions that week.
On Tuesday, the top decision-making body of the U.S. Federal Reserve held a monthly meeting in which -- according to a statement released that day -- it ultimately decided against the new round of monetary easing that many market observers had anticipated. On Wednesday, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke met with Republican lawmakers, telling them behind closed doors that no bailout of Europe was forthcoming.
On Thursday, however, data released by that central banking entity showed that, in spite of public pronouncements and private promises to the contrary, the U.S. central bank tacitly did those very things last week.
A particularly troublesome datapoint further suggests the Fed quietly bailed out a major financial institution midweek, something at least one bank strategist has already surmised.

The world's premier mining and mining investment website Gold to remain volatile in the battle between QE and austerity - GOLD ANALYSIS | Mineweb

Gold to remain volatile in the battle between QE and austerity
The irony is that, at least for now, the run of events is moving away from gold enthusiasts' worst fears, undermining the price of the precious metal.
Author: James Saft (Reuters)
Posted: Tuesday , 20 Dec 2011

(Reuters) -

- What kind of investor is rewarded, when they get what they ask for, with losses? A gold buyer, it seems.
The price of gold has fallen to $1600 per oz, a loss of about 15 percent from its August peak, as austerity has become almost the default setting for fiscal policy and as central banks, notably the European Central Bank, have declined to take forceful steps to stimulate.
While there are many variations, the essence of the argument for gold is that it provides insurance against the bad faith of others, principally in the form of deliberate debasement of a currency. Gold has been described as an anti-currency, because, unlike dollars or yen, it cannot simply be summoned into being, as currency is during quantitative easing. Gold is also, the theory goes, protection against profligacy by governments, which again ultimately may bring on inflation or otherwise devalue a currency.

Permanent Crisis: The First 5 Years

Cheer up! This permanent state of emergency is doing a wonderful nothing to unwind the bubble...
So 2012 will mark the fifth anniversary of the global financial crisis. There's little reason to think it's reached its end yet. Merry Christmas.
Banking and household leverage in the rich West has barely ticked lower from the credit bubble's historic peak of 2007. Financial leverage has only been reduced by a fraction, while governments have been stuffed like a French goose with that new debt spurned by the private sector since 2008.
So why this slow, seemingly permanent pain? Because interest rates are still set at zero, with no uptick in sight - an emergency measure that's now etched in stone. "There is a lot of financial stress out there," the UK insolvency specialist Begbies Traynor moaned last week. "[But] if it wasn't for low interest rates the number of insolvencies would have been twice what they are." Twice as many debtors would have enjoyed a write-down, in short. But do you really think their creditors sleep any better knowing what's keeping debtors in debt?

Fed Releases The New Bank Rules Everyone's Been Freaking Out About

If You Know This Gold-Euro Connection you wont panic every time price falls

Gold and Silver will counteract this currency devaluation. Thus gold and silver are the hedges against what is coming.  However, on the road to currency oblivion, inevitably we will see pullbacks in gold. These pullbacks will be because of two reasons: One is speculators—who are obviously riding the precious metals bandwagon—who will periodically get spooked and decide to cash out their winnings.  The second reason for these jolting pullbacks in precious metals will be because large institutions will need to cover their capital requirements, in the face of the collapse in the currencies.  Such as what is happening now.When this happens, you have to remember two things: One, it is momentary, and two, it is a time to buy.

Now investing in gold a better choice

By Nancy Sylverstein
You've probably seen the signs by now, since they're pretty much everywhere you turn. People are buying Gold in record numbers and it really shows no sign of stopping. From television commercials to pawn shops, the number of buyers for gold has triggered a modern gold rush.

Gold below $1600 spurs record buying National Bank of Dubai

DUBAI (Commodity Online): After Gold prices crashed below $1600/oz last Wednesday, the National Bank of Dubai (NBD) recorded its second-best sales day on Thursday, says Gerhard Schubert who heads the precious metals section.  “I was resigned to the fact that the physical buying in our market (Dubai and UAE in the wider sense) had finished for the year, and then came Thursday, 15th December. We saw excellent buying from customers which reminded us very strongly of the heydays in August/September”, Schubert said in a weekly report.

London Trader - We are Witnessing a Historic Bottom in Gold

SilverDoctors: BOA $150 Billion Underwater if Mortgages Were Mark...

SilverDoctors: BOA $150 Billion Underwater if Mortgages Were Mark...: AGXIIK provides a summary of Bank of America's finances as its stock makes a $4 handle. Estimated real value of mortgages marked to marke...

SilverDoctors: US Sells $30 Billion in 4-Week Bills at 0.000%

SilverDoctors: US Sells $30 Billion in 4-Week Bills at 0.000%: The rush for the perceived safety of T-bonds pushed the 4-week yield today to ZERO. This is the first time since post Lehman in 2008 that y...

Fitch: EFSF And France Joined At The AAA Downgrade Hip

Kerr Says Euro Woes May Prompt Return of Gold Standard

This Is The Chart That Really Makes The Germans Furious

Silver Industrial use investment demand to push prices higher

Silver: Industrial use, investment demand to push prices higher: “Silver is hardly just ornamental,” says Hanlon. “It has existing and growing new uses that suggest prices can strengthen over the next few years.” As demand for silver continues to expand, investors will want to consider silver as long-term investment, he says. Investment options include bars, ranging from one ounce to 1,000 ounces, along with one-ounce silver coins from U.S. and foreign government and private mints. “And like any investment, you should research who you purchase from,” Hanlon advises."

ECB's Stability Review: Seven Charts Of The Sovereign SNAFU

Moody's On Systematic Bank Downgrades

Panetta: Iran is just months away from a nuke - a red line for US and Israel : Pelley then asked: If the Israelis decide to launch a military strike to prevent that weapon from being built, what sort of complications does that raise for you? Panetta: We share the same common concern. The United States does not want Iran to develop a nuclear weapon. That's a red line for us and that's a red line, obviously, for the Israelis. If we have to do it we will deal with it. Asked if "it" included military steps, the US defense secretary replied: There are no options off the table. A nuclear weapon in Iran is unacceptable.

Capital Account: Mish on Malfunctioning Bureaucrats, Gold's Recent Decline and Chinese Chicken Feet!

Sweden Cuts Interest Rate to Prevent Euro Fallout

ECB Chief Warns of Debt Contagion Spread

We’ve Reached the End Game For Central Bank Intervention

We’ve reached the end game for Central Bank intervention: When confronted with excessive debt, you can either “take the hit” or you can try to inflate the debt away.  In 2008, the Central Banks, lead by the US Federal Reserve, decided not to “take the hit.” They’ve since spent trillions of Dollars propping up the financial system. By doing this, they’ve essentially attempted to fight a debt problem by issuing more debt.  The end result is similar to what happens when you try to cure a heroine addict by giving him more heroine: each new “hit” has less and less effect.

Tsunami intact: gold to rise to $3,000+ by mid-year - Goldrunner

The latest technical chart analysis shows that the previously predicted gold price target of $3,000+ by mid-year remains intact despite the recent price setbacks: Everybody is waiting with bated breath for the Fed to announce the next round of QE while looking at the false pricing index rise for the Dollar.  The fact is that the Fed just announced the printing of $600 Billion of new Dollars that are yet to be factored into the $Gold price.  That $600 Billion amount is equal to the total amount of the last course of QE that jettisoned the price of gold in Dollars much higher, and we still expect the Fed to announce a round of QE on top of that so the US Government can pay its bills.

Beware the Coming Bailouts of Europe By Ron Paul: The real cause of economic depression is loose monetary policy: the creation of money and credit out of thin air and the monetization of government debt by a central bank. This inflationary monetary policy is the cause of every boom and bust, yet it is precisely what political and economic elites both in Europe and the United States are prescribing as a resolution for the present crisis. The drastic next step being discussed is a multi-trillion dollar bailout of Europe by the European Central Bank, aided by the IMF and the Federal Reserve.

By: Ron Paul | Mon, Dec 19, 2011

The economic establishment in this country has come to the conclusion that it is not a matter of "if" the United States must intervene in the bailout of the euro, but simply a question of "when" and "how". Newspaper articles and editorials are full of assertions that the breakup of the euro would result in a worldwide depression, and that economic assistance to Europe is the only way to stave off this calamity. These assertions are yet again more scare-mongering, just as we witnessed during the depths of the 2008 financial crisis. After just a decade of the euro, people have forgotten that Europe functioned for centuries without a common currency.

The real cause of economic depression is loose monetary policy: the creation of money and credit out of thin air and the monetization of government debt by a central bank. This inflationary monetary policy is the cause of every boom and bust, yet it is precisely what political and economic elites both in Europe and the United States are prescribing as a resolution for the present crisis. The drastic next step being discussed is a multi-trillion dollar bailout of Europe by the European Central Bank, aided by the IMF and the Federal Reserve.

John Williams - Gold to Prevail as System Falls into Disorder : The earlier all-time high of $850.00 of January 21, 1980 would be $2,472 per troy ounce, based on November 2011 CPI-U-adjusted dollars, $8,702 per troy ounce based on SGS-Alternate-CPI-adjusted dollars. In like manner, the all-time high price for silver in January 1980 of $49.45 per troy ounce, although approached earlier this year, still has not been hit since 1980, including in terms of inflation-adjusted dollars. Based on November 2011 CPI-U inflation, the 1980 silver price peak would be $144 per troy ounce and would be $506 per troy ounce in terms of SGS-Alternate-CPI-adjusted dollars.”

Silver Update 12/19/11 S.P.A.R.C.

Lamestream Media Discover Ron Paul: Ron Paul simply didn’t exist. Maybe the mainstream media were trying to relegate him to oblivion because his anti-Fed and anti-war viewpoints were inconvenient. But even people who weren’t supporters of Ron Paul were outraged: a democracy that wants to be vibrant needs adequate news coverage of major political players. And their outrage lit up the blogosphere, social media, and other outlets

The Wall Street Journal, NPR, The New York Times, and other mainstream media have engaged in an obvious and silly boycott of presidential candidate Ron Paul. Report after report about the Republican primary excluded him, though occasionally they’d mention his name—to be fair and balanced. For example, the media coverage on October 11 ahead of the GOP debate that evening looked like this:

The Wall Street Journal’s front-page article, “Debates Take Candidates for a Bumpy Ride,” didn’t mention Ron Paul.
The New York Times’ front-page article, “Five Things to Watch for in the G.O.P. Debate,” mentioned Ron Paul's name at the bottom, in a parenthetical remark that acknowledged his presence.
NPR's four-and-a-half minute report covered Sarah Palin's and Chris Christie's exit from the race; Herman Cain's from-the-outside strategy; Mitt Romney's 25% ceiling and his “Mormon problem”; and Rick Perry’s lousy performance during debates. But no mention of Ron Paul.

Bank of America Lists The "Other" Risks For 2012

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/19/2011 22:12 -0500

While not quite a "jarring" as the Saxo Bank "outrageous predictions", Bank of America has also put together yet another list of "other" risks for 2012, which as BofA's Martin Mauro says, "have persisted or become worse over the course of the year, but have escaped market attention due to the spotlight on Europe." The risks are as follows: i) Hard landing in China; ii) Currency wars (competitive currency devaluation); iii) Middle East oil supply shock and iv) Municipal default fears. The only thing we would add is that these are not really risks, as the are all developing processes in some stage of deterioration. And, as usually happens, they will likely all strike at the same time, just when the world is most vulnerable, likely minutes after Greece announces it has left the Eurozone, and the Euro is in legal and structural limbo. But luckily we have at least a few weeks to months before that happens. So here is Bank of America's predictive prowess in all its rhetorical glory.

Welcome To The Third World, Part 4: Boomers Reap What They’ve Sown

by John Rubino on December 19, 2011

In retrospect it seems so obvious. If Boomers had been paying attention, instead of buying 4,000 square foot houses, new cars and big screen TVs, we’d have reacted to rising indebtedness by living small and saving big from the 1980s onward. Instead of voting for whoever promised the most free stuff, we’d have demanded balanced budgets and hard choices.

But we didn’t. We became “consumers” rather than builders. Our savings rate was near-zero for much of this time, and our debt ballooned during what should have been our prime saving years. So what’s coming isn’t a natural disaster. It’s the result of choices made by intelligent, well-educated people who should have known better.

Oblivious Because of Mainstream Media: There is no wonder so many are in the dark and completely unprepared for the next crash. The front page of USA TODAY, last week, touted a headline that read: “Are We There Yet?” The article said, “The economic signs are encouraging, but we’re a long way from a comeback.” It covered recent upticks in auto and home sales. It also said the unemployment rate recently fell to “8.6%.” The USA TODAY story went on to say, “Although the decline was partly due to a 315,000 drop in the labor force as discouraged job seekers simply gave up, employment is up an average 321,000 a month since August, according to the Labor Department’s household survey. Most encouraging: Much of the hiring appears to be by small businesses, which typically fuel job growth in a recovery.” Wow, the fact that 315,000 people “simply gave up” seemed completely glossed over. Why did more than 300,000 people give up? Maybe it’s because there are precious few jobs. And what about the 400,000 people every week filing unemployment claims? Never let the facts get in the way of positive spin to please the advertisers. The USA TODAY story closes with a business professor who said, “I have a lot of confidence in the future.”

December 19, 2011, at 4:56 pm
By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com

Dear CIGAs,

I think most people are simply oblivious to the enormous dangers the world economy faces. Oh, I think we will all get through Christmas and New Years without a meltdown, but all bets are off in 2012. A new acquaintance of mine told me last Friday, “Isn’t the economy getting better?” I just looked at her and shook my head in the negative. Then she said, “I guess if it was getting bad, the media wouldn’t tell us the truth.” I shook my head in the affirmative. My new friend is 75 years old and gets a Social Security check every month. She’s pretty sharp, but I don’t blame her for being misinformed. She gets her news the old fashioned way—from the mainstream media (MSM).