10 February 2012

Rant Topic: The Precious Metals “Anti-Bubble”

As for silver, not only is production inexorably declining, but in addition to its long-standing usage as MONEY, silver is the second most utilized commodity on Earth, trailing only crude oil.  Silver is indispensible to countless industrial processes due to unique properties such as strength, malleability, and ductility, and is rapidly emerging as a key component to the inelastic medical industry.  Thus, unlike gold, silver is consumed.

Consequently, less than a billion ounces of above-ground silver remain on Earth, worth less than what the Federal Reserve prints every few hours.  The U.S. Geologic Service (USGS) forecasts silver to be the first extinct element due to its gaping supply/demand gap, but do not account for monetary demand, which in my view will ultimately dwarf industrial demand by a factor of 1,000 or more.  As for attempting to calculate silver’s “monetary value,” simply utilize the money supply metrics above and take your best guess.

At a bare minimum, I expect gold to reach $15,000-$20,000/ounce, and the gold/silver ratio to fall to between 5:1 and 15:1 (yielding a silver price projection of $1,000-$4,000/oz), in TODAY’S (non-hyper-inflated) dollars, pounds, Euros, Yen, and Yuan, of course.

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Thursday, February 9, 2012

Good evening Ladies and Gentlemen:

Gold closed higher by $9.70 to $1739.00. Silver also rebounded nicely rising by 21 cents to $33.88.
Gold jumped immediately at comex opening and remained positive until London was put to bed and that is when the crooked bankers sold their paper metals to drive the price down.

Let us head over to the comex and assess trading today.
The total gold comex OI fell by 3,914 contracts as the raid had a little effect forcing some of the weaker longs to pitch their contracts. The front delivery month of February saw its OI rise by 4 contracts despite 35 delivery notices yesterday. We thus gained 39 notices or 3900 additional gold ounces standing in this delivery month. The next big delivery month is April and it is here that some the biggest contraction from 240,326 contracts to 236,981 for a loss of 3345. The estimated volume today was quiet at 147,155. The confirmed volume yesterday, the day of the raid came in at 162,522 as the bankers supplied all of their non backed gold paper fire power.

The total silver comex OI fell slightly by 676 contracts from 106,008 to 105,332 as raids seem to have no effect on our silver leaves as they refuse to fall from the tree. The front options expiry month of February saw its OI fall by 1 contract despite 41 delivery notices yesterday. We thus gained another 40 contracts or an additional 200,000 oz of silver. We are now 20 days away from first day notice for the March contract.
Here the OI fell from 43,383 to 40,979 which is normal as we witness some rollovers into May. The estimated volume today came in at 46,867 which is becoming the new norm. The confirmed volume yesterday, the day of the raid came in at 69,549. The bankers are throwing a temper tantrum that they cannot force the liquidation of silver longs.

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China's Rebalancing Should Be Good for Gold Demand

By: Ben Traynor | Thu, Feb 9, 2012


The next stage of China's development could give gold buyers a boost...
There is an old saying: "Nobody rings a bell at the top or bottom of a market."
Having said that, anyone reading about the stampede for gold during last month's Chinese New Year celebrations might have heard a faint ringing in their ears.
Here are a few quotations from various press sources:
  • "Some customers just walk in and buy a bunch of 100g gold bars all at once...Companies come in too to buy gold bars for presents." -branch manager, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China.
  • "Some companies are giving out gold instead of cash to their employees" -Jia Zhihong, jeweler, Wuhan.
  • "With customers crowding and rushing in, we did not even have time to eat and drink." - gold counter sales clerk.
  • "People seem crazy about gold, snatching it up more like a cheap cabbage than such a precious metal...You have to quickly decide whether to make a purchase, or it will be taken away by others." - Beijing shopper
  • "Think of it like investing in the stock market...Gold maintains its value much better than stocks." - sales clerk, China Gold store.
The classic signs of an investment mania are there. Mass participation, frenzied buying, an established narrative that something is a 'sure thing'. But though this may look like the-mania-before-the-crash, that doesn't mean it is.

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BrotherJohnF Is All About Freedom And Silver--02-09-2012

"Brother John F of BrotherJohnF.com is an amazingly popular blogger who's site regularly attracts many thousands of visitors. Through his YouTube Channel and his site, he's become a go to source of information about what's really going on in the economy. And we both agree, it ain't pretty. Declining employment rates, declining standards of living, and political instability are all indications of where the state of our nation and our economic prospects are headed.

However, John believes that you can avoid much of the economic deluge that is currently hitting our shores by the judicious purchase of silver. While the Financial Survival Network sometimes may appear to be a gigantic echo chamber, it is virtually impossible to get opposing viewpoints to go on the record. Perhaps they know something and don't want to leave a record behind. So folks like Brother John are left to spread the word and help us prepare."

ORIGINAL SOURCE

There Will Be No End to Quantitative Easing

By Detlev Schlichter Feb 9th, 2012

The Bank of England is expected today to announce another round of debt monetization, called “quantitative easing”. A majority of economists polled by Dow Jones Newswire earlier this week expected the central bank’s policy committee to agree “to £50 billion ($79 billion) of additional bond purchases using freshly created money to underpin demand and ensure its 2% inflation target is met. Some expect it to go for £75 billion.”

Official inflation is over 4 percent in the UK, so how printing more money is going to help meet a 2 percent inflation target is a bit difficult to grasp, but let us not quibble over such details. What counts is that the Bank of England is the undisputed champ of QE. After the next round of money printing, the BoE will have created new money to the tune of 20 percent of GDP, and will fund more than a quarter of all outstanding government debt via the printing press.

£275 billion of QE so far have not solved the crisis — the economy last year grew by less than 1 percent — but have lifted inflation and thus squeezed real incomes. At the same time, this policy has kept the government’s borrowing costs low and the banks from shrinking and in certain cases from collapsing. As with any policy of monetary debasement, the direct beneficiaries are the state and the banks.

This has tradition behind it. The Bank of England was founded in 1694 for the specific purpose of financing the Crown, which at the time was in low standing with its creditors. From its inception the Bank of England enjoyed numerous legal privileges that cemented its dominant position in the nascent but growing British banking system. Among them was the privilege to issue money against obligations of the Crown — a form of early ‘debt monetization’. Of course, the gold standard was a hindrance to unlimited money creation, so whenever the state needed more funds, usually at times of war, the Bank of England was conveniently absolved of any of its contractual agreements to redeem in specie, and kindly asked to fund the state through the creation of new money.

Gentlemen, start your printing presses!

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