03 January 2012

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SilverDoctors: Guest Post: The Silver Revolution: Submitted by AGXIIK All revolutions are started by one man. To win we have to think like US Marines. Marines have consistently beaten nu...

SilverDoctors: 3 Card Monte in COMEX Silver Warehouses?

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Rick Rule - How to Make 50 to 100 Times Your Money in 2012

The Possibility of $1,000 Silver before Hyperinflation

Global Investments Ltd

January 3, 2012 - 9:58am

2011 was both an amazing and disappointing year for silver investors. The most disappointed of all are those who bought in during the April highs, when silver almost reached $50. However, what these investors need to remember is that not too long ago, people were fretting over changes in prices of ten cents or less. Not too far down the road, the difference between $29 silver and $50 silver will also seem rather minimal.

A look at some of the fundamentals which underpin the silver market will help remind our readers why G.I. Metals DMCC holds that silver will ultimately outperform gold, and what type of highs we might eventually see in an inflationary - and not hyperinflationary - environment. With current levels of central bank intervention to solve sovereign debt problems, we expect to see more economic contraction for the first part of 2012, followed by even more excessive money printing which will lead to inflationary, and eventually hyperinflationary, conditions. This only requires a greater level of velocity to occur, along with a loss of confidence in the world reserve currency, which we expect will begin to happen when bond speculators' attention is moved from Europe to America.

A revision of these fundamentals will also help remind us that physical ownership of silver should not be viewed as much as a short-term investment, but rather, a mid-term form of wealth preservation and growth. We see these types of scenarios most likely playing out within the next 1 to 3 years.

Silver as a Hedge and Multiplier of Wealth

Silver, like gold, has historically been recognized as real money and a store of wealth. The opportunities expected to arise from investing in silver now, however, are even more pronounced than those of gold. Because silver has not received the same attention as gold in the media, fewer investors know about it. This is beginning to change, but silver is still very early on in its bull market as compared to gold, which has progressed further in the second phase of its bull market. Presently, the silver spot price is largely dictated by the movements of derivative-based vehicles such as ETFs, futures and options, which are highly leveraged and cannot accurately track the true value of their underlying asset. Expressed simply, lots of paper is being exchanged, but little physical silver is actually even held by these institutions responsible for distributing these paper promises.

Iran provokes showdown, warns US carrier not to return to Persian Gulf

In another heated escalation over the strategic Strait of Hormuz, Iran Tuesday, Jan. 3, threatened to take action if the US aircraft carrier which "moved to the Sea of Oman because of our drill returns to the Persian Gulf." Army chief Lt. Gen. Ataolla Salehi said:" Iran will not repeat this warning."
He referred to the USS Stennis as "the enemy's carrier," which "I recommend and emphasize… not return to the Persian Gulf." He avoided naming the US vessel or the details of action Iran might take if it returned.
debkafile's military sources report that the Stennis transited the Strait of Hormus Wednesday, Dec. 28 and entered the Sea of Oman where Iran was staging a naval drill. Washington was demonstrating freedom of navigation in the international strait through which one-fifth of the worlds exported oil is shipped and underlining Iran's inability to close it to merchant shipping and US warships.
Iran said that its surveillance aircraft and warships tracked and filmed the US carrier's movements in and around Hormuz which it claims to fully control.

Saturday, Dec. 31, Iran announced a long-range missile test-fire would take place over the strait, thereby causing a five-hour stoppage of shipping traffic. Later, an Iranian general said the missile test was delayed. debkafile's Iranian and military sources reported that this was a trick to prove Iran capable of closing the Strait of Hormuz in defiance of strong warnings from Washington.

Nominal GDP targeting: economic buzz phrase of 2012?

“We can expect more of the same – specifically, serial bailouts of governments and banks that, if not already insolvent are bordering on insolvency. It is a distressing prospect.”

So says James Turk, in his 2012 prediction piece for the GoldMoney website.

This comes as Friday bought confirmation that Greece’s budget deficit is heading into double digits, while the latest figures from the Federal Reserve show non-US investors dumped a record amount of US Treasuries over the past month. As ZeroHedge comments: “foreign holdings of US paper have been virtually flat in all of 2011, something which is in stark contrast with what the price of the 10 Year would indicate vis-à-vis investor demand.” The USA’s federal debt-to-GDP ratio now stands at 100%, while President Obama has made a new pro forma request for a $1.2 trillion increase in the US government’s debt ceiling.

Gold and silver prices enjoyed a nice bounce on Friday, with gold recovering back above $1,550 and silver briefly moving above $28; however, the white metal finished the day back under $28. $1,600 and $30 represent the price levels in the two metals that bulls will be looking to recapture quickly in order to avoid any further downside setbacks.

The bull’s cause will be greatly aid – particularly as far as silver is concerned – by any new weakness in the US dollar. The Dollar Index (USDX) fell 0.2% on Friday to 80.2, with that index struggling to break above 80. Ultimately, the dollar’s short-term fortunes are the inverse of the euro’s. If markets become more confident about the situation in Europe, then the dollar will weaken and the euro will rise, which should be bullish for precious metals and commodities. If on the other hand the situation in Europe deteriorates, then the dollar could strengthen further against the euro, which could cause further short-term difficulties for the metals (particularly silver and the platinum-group metals).

Budget collapse: too much free money

By Lewis Lehrman, on 2 January 12

A view from America, previously published at The American Spectator.

The super-committee of Congress is the latest group to confess abject defeat by the Treasury budget deficit. Who can be surprised by this total failure? During the past generation Congress has made as many as fifteen legislative attempts to control government spending — aimed ultimately at a balanced budget. The most notable efforts were those sponsored by the all-time budget hawk, Senator Phil Gramm of Texas. But every administrative and legislative effort by the authorities, no matter how well-intentioned, has collapsed. Why is this so?

Nobel economist Milton Friedman believed the solution to the budget deficit problem was to deny Congress tax revenues. So he advised Congressmen and Presidents to oppose all tax increases — thereby denying bloated government the funds with which to increase spending. But Friedman’s advice has failed, too. We know this because marginal tax rates have been reduced from as high as 70% in 1964 to 15-20-39% in 2011 — depending on the type of income. But congressional spending has nevertheless increased every year — such that, today, only 60% of the Federal budget is financed by taxes, the remainder by Treasury debt. Total direct Federal debt is now about equal to total U.S. output.

The intractable budget deficit and the inexorable rise of government spending has a simpler explanation. Congress and the Treasury are in possession of several open-ended charge accounts — “permanent credit card financing” — with no limits. With its charge cards the Treasury can borrow new credit (money) from the banking system — much of what it needs every year to finance the ever-rising budget deficit.

A look at the current Federal Reserve Balance Sheet shows that the Fed has created about $1.7 trillion of new credit (money) with which to purchase Treasury debt. Foreign central banks have created about $2.7 trillion of new credit to purchase U.S. Treasury bonds. This global, electronic, money-printing exercise has financed almost 30% of the total direct debt of the U.S. Treasury. In 2002, Ben Bernanke, now Chairman of the Fed, did not mince words to describe this process:

[U]nder a fiat (that is, paper) money system, a government (in practice, the central bank in cooperation with other agencies) should always be able to generate increased nominal spending and inflation, even when the short-term nominal interest rate is at zero…. [T]he U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press (or, today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost.

He might have added that these “no cost” dollars, printed by the Fed, are the enablers of the perennial U.S. budget deficit.

But the Fed is not the only credit card used by the Treasury to finance the budget deficit. Because the dollar is the world’s reserve currency, foreign central banks also finance U.S. budget deficits (as the custody account of the Fed balance sheet shows). Domestic and foreign commercial banks, too, supply vast amounts of new credit to the U.S. Treasury because domestic, foreign, and international bank regulators, such as the Basel authorities, define U.S. sovereign bonds as high quality assets for which bank reserves are not necessary. Therefore financial institutions can qualify their overleveraged balance sheets by loading up on Treasury Securities. Indeed, only 10-20% of the total direct debt of the U.S. Treasury is now owned by the non-bank, non-government private market. Given the reserve currency role of the dollar, the Federal Reserve and foreign central banks have been given every institutional incentive to finance the U.S. budget deficit. Beginning with World War I, every monetary discipline has been removed by domestic and international authorities, such that runaway government spending everywhere relies on the ultimate credit card — newly created money in the banking system.

Keep Your Eye On The Ball Of Gold Fundamentals

Gold and Silver Rise

By Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. | January 3, 2012 3:15 AM EST
LiveTradingNews

Gold and Silver rise on safe haven demand

Gold and Silver gained after reports over the weekend that Iran produced its 1st nuclear fuel rod, causing investors to buy the precious metal as a safe haven.


Gold for immediate delivery advanced 0.2% to 1,566.27 oz, and Silver was + 0.1% at 27.8625 oz.

Gold rose 10% last year, the 11th straight annual gainer, and Silver fell 9.9% on the year..

Gold reserves increased in November in Belarus, Turkey, Tajikistan, Macedonia, Mauritius and Morocco, and declined in Mexico, according to data on the International Monetary Fund's website.

Iran threatens action if US carrier returns

Source: BI-ME with Reuters , Author: Posted by BI-ME staff
Posted: Tue January 3, 2012 11:57 am

INTERNATIONAL. Iran will take action if a US aircraft carrier which left the area because of Iranian naval exercises returns to the Gulf, the state news agency quoted army chief Ataollah Salehi as saying on Tuesday.

"Iran will not repeat its warning ... the enemy's carrier has been moved to the Sea of Oman because of our drill. I recommend and emphasize to the American carrier not to return to the Persian Gulf," Salehi told IRNA.

"I advise, recommend and warn them (the Americans) over the return of this carrier to the Persian Gulf because we are not in the habit of warning more than once," the semi-official Fars news agency quoted Salehi as saying.

Salehi did not name the aircraft carrier or give details of the action Iran might take if it returned.

Iran completed 10 days of naval exercises in the Gulf on Monday, and said during the drills that if foreign powers imposed sanctions on its crude exports it could shut the Strait of Hormuz, through which 40 percent of the world's traded oil is shipped.

The U.S. Fifth Fleet, which is based in Bahrain, said it would not allow shipping to be disrupted in the strait.

Iran said on Monday it had successfully test-fired two long-range missiles during its naval drill, flexing its military muscle in the face of mounting Western pressure over its controversial nuclear program.

Iran also said it had no intention of closing the Strait of Hormuz but had carried out "mock" exercises on shutting the strategic waterway.

Could gold repeat another double digit rise in 2012?

In a word: sure. But much depends on the strength of the dollar, physical demand out of Asia and any new crises that may develop.

The forecast for gold to return to seeing a “two” as the front number in 2012 is shared by several investment banks. Morgan Stanley, TD Securities, Bank of America-Merrill Lynch and SEB Merchant Banking are among some of the banks who see gold either averaging above $2,000 or at least trading to that level at some time during next year.

Based on gold prices around $1,600, a move to $2,000 would be about a 23% rise.

Leibovit said he sees inflation coming down the road, the question is, “when does it kick in?” Gold could continue to weaken into January, but he said gold investors need to consider a longer term view than six months or even a year. They should be taking at least a three to five year perspective.

Tom Winmill, portfolio manager of the Midas Fund, said there’s a good chance for gold to see another strong year.

“It’s very possible that it can be very strong year after year after year. We think the key component to gold is that it’s denominated in dollars. How high it can go will be dependent on how much money is created. With the two QEs, $2.2 trillion was created. There will be more money created down the road…. We (the U.S.) will be adding more money because we are borrowing. The borrowing represents the future creation of new money,” he said.
For 2012, Winmill is forecasting $1,950 by the end of the year, with a high of $2,200 and a low of $1,650.

The low interest rate environment is important to the gold outlook, Winmill said. “You can’t view rates in a vacuum – at Midas we view inflation rate next to the real yield…. The two-year bonds yield is 25 basis points. The 12 month CPI is (3.2%), so the negative real rate is (3%). That is destroying savings. Our view is as people become more aware of the destruction of wealth they will there will be a stampede into hard assets – gold, diamonds, real estate,” he said.

The biggest hedge fund is long gold in 2012, Jim Rogers says gold headed to $1200/oz

NEW YORK (Commodity Online): Bridgewater, the biggest hedge fund in the world with $125 billion in investments, is long Gold for 2012. The fund is also positioned for stronger emerging market currencies in Asia and low yields in high quality government bond markets.

Barclays Capital and Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BofAML) also puts Gold price to average $2000/oz in 2012 with BofAML noting that the recent correction “was not necessarily driven by a broad-based reassessment of fundamentals."

Legendary investor Jim Rogers is bullish for gold over the long-term but in the short-term, he prefers to be bearish. "In my view, gold could go to $1,200-$1,300 (an ounce)... Gold has been up 11 years in a row which is extremely unusual in any financial asset, so gold is overdue for a correction”, Rogers was quoted by Reuters.

Who holds the world's biggest gold reserves?

NEW YORK (Commodity Online): Following uncertainty in the equity markets and the global economy, countries and organizations believe that Gold is a safe haven and investing in gold is a sure ticket to preserving hard-earned wealth. A store of value and a safe one at that, gold as a commodity has been appreciating and giving investors ample returns barring a few instances.

In fact, the biggest institutional holders of gold—central banks, international entities and governments—are believed to account for approximately 16.5 percent of the world's gold, holding about 30,700 tons.

United States: The United States Bullion Depository in Kentucky—otherwise known as Fort Knox—is the most famous gold stockpile in the world. It holds the majority of the nation’s gold reserves, the remainder of which is held at the Philadelphia Mint, the Denver Mint, the West Point Bullion Depository and the San Francisco Assay Office. Altogether, the total gold reserves of the U.S. equal 8,965.6 tons and would be valued at approximately $522.16 billion in today's market.Germany: The Deutsche Bundesbank, Germany's central bank, has 3,747.9 tons of gold reserves, which are valued at about $218.28 billion. According to the World Gold Council, Germany’s gold coffers account for 71.4 percent of total foreign reserves.

The International Monetary Fund: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) oversees international economic operations of 185 member countries. Its gold policies have changed in the last 25 years, but the reserves remain to stabilize international markets and aid national economies. In one such instance, the IMF sold a portion of its reserves in December 1999 to aid the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries Initiative. The 3,101 tons of IMF Gold would fetch roughly $180.6 billion in the open market.

Italy: The Banca D'Italia manages Italy's foreign reserves, which have been reported at 2,701.9 tons by the World Gold Council and comprise the fourth largest gold reserve in the world. These holdings are worth $138.33 billion and account for 71.2 percent of the country's foreign reserves.

France: The French National Bank, Banque De France, is home to the country's gold holdings, which comprise 66.2 percent of its foreign reserves. With 2,683.8 tons of gold in reserve, France's holdings are worth approximately $156.31 billion.



Source: World Gold Council (data updated on August 2011)

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