LONDON (Commodity Online): The vast array of macro insecurities has provided a fertile backdrop for gold, particularly when concerns escalated over the US debt ceiling last year and the Fed pushed out the guidance for the first interest rate hike this year. However, broad risk reduction and the need for liquidity have still been able to pressure prices lower. One underlying positive for the market has been the continued appetite for net buying from the official sector globally amid the sovereign debt issues, said Barclays Capital in a research note.
Indeed, on the demand side, the latest IMF statistics reveal a continuation of central bank net buying, with net purchases of just under 40 tonnes in December alone; and including Turkey’s new policy of accepting gold in its reserve requirements from commercial banks increases net reported inflows to 387 tonnes for the year, Barclays concluded.
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14 February 2012
Japan Announces $130 Billion QE Program, One Percent Inflation Target; 4th Quarter GDP Unexpectedly Contracts 2.3%; Lawmakers Threaten to Take Over Monetary Policy
MISH'S
Global Economic
Trend Analysis
Japan's 4th Quarter GDP Unexpectedly Contracts at 2.3% Annualized Rate
The Financial Times reports Japan’s GDP shrinks in fourth quarter
February 13, 2012
Japan’s economy shrank for the third time in four quarters between October and December, after floods in Thailand damaged production, and a strong yen and subdued overseas demand hurt exports.
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Global Economic
Trend Analysis
Japan's 4th Quarter GDP Unexpectedly Contracts at 2.3% Annualized Rate
The Financial Times reports Japan’s GDP shrinks in fourth quarter
February 13, 2012
Japan’s economy shrank for the third time in four quarters between October and December, after floods in Thailand damaged production, and a strong yen and subdued overseas demand hurt exports.
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What Lies Ahead for Gold & Silver?
What lies ahead for gold and silver? After gold pierces strong resistance at $1,750, the next stop according to technical analysis is $1,807 followed by $1,850 and then the all-time high reached last spring at $1,923. When $1,923 is left behind, gold should move into the $2,250 to $2,400 range (by the end of the year, or soon thereafter) and then it will have to deal with a correction that should send it back near $1,900 and will scare many people to the sidelines.
Silver is in a tight trading range bracketed by a tight trading range of $30.48 and $34.48. Once this range is overcome, the next stop will quickly be $36 to $38 or higher. It’s been a while since we’ve seen $38 silver. I remember it well as I sold some of my silver at $38 early last summer to fund the condo purchase in Miami.
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Silver is in a tight trading range bracketed by a tight trading range of $30.48 and $34.48. Once this range is overcome, the next stop will quickly be $36 to $38 or higher. It’s been a while since we’ve seen $38 silver. I remember it well as I sold some of my silver at $38 early last summer to fund the condo purchase in Miami.
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Greece Bailout Yes or No?/the USA 2013 Budget/Possible Raid tomorrow/ Moody's downgrade
Monday, February 13, 2012
Good evening Ladies and Gentlemen:
Gold rose by $1.00 to $1723.00 at comex closing time. Silver rose 10 cents to $33.70. Initially
gold and silver rose, however the bankers do not want our precious metals rising in these precarious times so they provided a brick wall with more non backed paper gold and silver selling. It seems that 34.00 dollar per oz is the barrier for silver. Anything over $1750 for gold will bring on much bank selling.
Let us head over to the comex and assess trading today. The total gold comex OI (open interest) fell by
2517 contracts to 428,559 from 431,076 contracts. The huge raid on Friday, caused minor liquidation of some longs in the gold complex. The front delivery month of February saw its OI fall by 248 contracts to 538. We had 229 delivery notices filed on Friday so we lost 19 contracts to cash settlements as Blythe Masters offered copious fiat money to some of our longs instead of letting them stand for actual metal. The next big delivery month is April and here the OI fell by 3104 contracts from 235,628 to 232,524. The estimated volume today at the comex must surely bother our CME folk. It registered a measly 102,890 contracts. The confirmed volume on Friday, the day of the big raid saw its volume come in at 191,182 contracts. To me it looks like many have abandoned the comex to seek their physical elsewhere. They know the game is crooked and the risk of another MFGlobal must weigh on investors. This is the reason for the lowering of the margin requirements in all commodities to entice players to return, but it is a little too late.
The activity in the silver complex is something to be beholden. The total silver complex open interest, after 3 raids, shook our bankers up again today. The OI rests tonight at 105,969 rising by 603 contracts from Friday's level of 105,366. Please remember that all OI numbers are one day back, i.e. we are looking at official OI as of Friday night with Monday's figures. No wonder the bankers threw a tantrum and they decided that another mini raid was necessary today, to scare some of the new silver longs to pitch their long contracts. The front options expiry month of February mysteriously saw its OI rise from 64 to 135 contracts for a gain of 71 contracts despite zero deliveries on Friday. What is even more puzzling is the fact that we got zero delivery notices again today. Generally when we get a rise in OI during an options expiry month, the bankers raid the comex for some physical and send the metal to needy destinations. Something is happening with silver as the world tries to obtain this worthwhile but fast depleting metal. The next delivery month is March and we are a little over 2 weeks to go before first day notice. The OI fell by only 1472 contracts from 39,867 to 38,395. The OI has been staying at these lofty levels and we have not witnessed much roll- over contracts into the May delivery month. The estimated volume at the silver comex today came in at a slightly lower pace of 40,200 contracts. The confirmed volume on Friday was a very healthy 58,209 contracts. Yet we saw nobody leave as the OI remains relatively constant!
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