Exposing Silver Mythology, Part I

Written by Jeff Nielson Monday, 23 January 2012 00:12

Advanced economic analysis involves high-level mathematics at least as complex as the realms of physics or engineering, accompanied by equally convoluted jargon. As a result, it is virtually incomprehensible to the ordinary person.

Conversely, the basic principles of economics are very straightforward. Indeed they could be summarized as little more than a combination of common sense and simple arithmetic. As a result, fundamental economic analysis is highly accessible to the ordinary person – because of its relative simplicity.

What then are we to make of the fact that the self-described (mainstream) “experts” on the silver market; the quasi-official sources for data on the silver market; and the primary regulator of the silver market all regularly and consistently demonstrate complete ignorance of even the most elementary of economic principles? Are we to attribute this to gross incompetence, inherent bias, or an intentional attempt to deceive?

I will leave it up to readers to reach their own conclusions. This piece will simply lay out the positions of these individuals and entities (past and present), lay out what little reliable data is available to us; and then apply the simple, common sense principles of economics to this data. It will focus on the three most basic aspects of any market: supply, demand, and inventories.

First, however, I will refer readers to some previous, elementary economic analysis. As I established with simple numbers (and logic), in any market shorting always “consumes” while investing always “conserves”. In other words, in any market which is dominated by shorting we will see a substantial increase in consumption, and (over time) a radical decline in inventories/stockpiles. On the other hand, in any market dominated by investors (who are invariably mis-labeled as “speculators”), we will see consumption decline and inventories swell – due to the rising prices generated by increased investor-buying.

Meanwhile, the entities/individuals mentioned previously do not merely regularly engage in analysis which is wildly erroneous, but in many cases is totally perverse. It is with respect to this last point where it becomes more difficult to ascribe this behavior to mere incompetence and rather more likely that there is some degree of malice involved.