Europe continues to smolder, but it is about to burst into outright flame. The 'private sector initiative' (PSI) discussions, which were supposed to be completed the Friday before last, continue. The leaks of an imminent deal continue, and eventually I am certain that a deal will be announced because eventually we will be down to just one bondholder still represented by the IIF. It is pretty clear by now - or it should be - that the PSI is no panacea. The only ray of hope to that process is that the approval of a 'haircut' (in the same way that Hannibal Lecter gave haircuts) would give the EU a fig leaf to approve a deal to send good money after bad, if it could overlook the failure to implement austerity measures that currently has German Finance Minister Schaeuble in a tizzy.
It would be a colossal mistake to agree to another €130bln bailout, even if the chances of it actually being disbursed would be slim (after all, remember the PSI process is necessary for the disbursement of the past-due tranche of the current bailout). And, honestly, I think the only reason they are continuing the charade is to give themselves more time to ready the Plan B default and/or Euro exit.
However, the market may not give them the time. Today Portugal's 10-year rate rose nearly 200bps (see Chart, source Bloomberg), likely triggered in part by a headline saying "ECB cuts off bond buying as pressure mounts."
It didn't actually cut off bond buying, but it bought very little last week. It seems fairly clear that the limits of the ECB's ability to sterilize the transaction are nearby, if they have not already been reached, and no doubt some cooler heads have pointed out that failing to have enough buyers for a 7-day ECB tender would be much worse than allowing bond yields to reach free-market levels. After all, what's the difference to Portugal of 15% or 17% on 10-year notes? Neither level makes Portugal's situation even vaguely sustainable.
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